- Texas A&M, fed up with playing second fiddle to Texas steps out from under the Longhorns shadow and leaves the Big 12 for the SEC. This gives the SEC a much desired foothold in football rich Texas.
- With the Big 12 losing another key member and jealous of the money flowing to the Pac-12 teams out west, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Texas take up the Pac-12's offer to join them and create the Pac-16 super conference.
- Not happy with Baylor being left out of a BCS AQ conference, the Texas legislature, Texas A&M, Baylor and the SEC strike a deal to include the Bears along with the Aggies in the SEC, further pushing its presence in Texas and continuing a natural rivalry for the Aggies in their new conference.
- At 14 teams the SEC faces the prospect of splitting an existing rivalry across division boundaries adds an additional two teams. They could pick up Florida State and Miami, or Clemson and Georgia Tech, but there is little benefit in adding teams in their existing footprint and its likely they'd face opposition from the existing schools in those regions. Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina enjoy a recruiting advantage over their in state competition due to the perceived strength of the SEC. Instead the SEC poaches Virginia and Virginia Tech from the ACC.
- With the Pac-12 and SEC moving up to 16 teams apiece, the Big Ten takes the opportunity to reach out to its two preferred Big East expansion choices, Rutgers and Pitt. Both are strong academically and Give the conference a strong presence on the coast. Rutgers gives inroads into the New York City media market as well. Syracuse is another option but its upstate location is not as big an advantage.
- The ACC seeking to bolster its dwindling ranks makes a play for the remaining Big East schools, with two exceptions, TCU and USF. With a strong presence already in Florida they don't need USF and TCU falls well outside the geographic footprint.
- Meanwhile the Big Ten makes its play for Notre Dame, who is faced with the choice of keeping its non-football sports with a diminished Big East consisting of the non-1-A football schools or joining the premiere 1-A academic conference. Although they prize their independence, the writings on the wall and the Irish finally accede to the Big Ten's overtures. This puts the Big Ten up to 15 schools. In order to fill out its ranks and provide a good rival for the Irish, the Big Ten picks its 16th school from the ACC and invites Boston College, increasing its presence on the east coast.
Essentially at this point we've seen the consolidation of 6 major conferences into 4 super conferences, the Pac-16, SEC, and Big Ten at 16 teams and the ACC at 14. It's possible the ACC could look for two more members to move up to 16, Army and Navy being the most likely choices, but I think 14 works for them.
So now that the big boys have finished what happens to the rest? In particular those schools left out (Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Missouri)?
- The four remaining Big 12 schools, along with BYU, TCU, and the top schools from the Mountain West (Boise State, Colorado State, AIr Force, UNLV, Nevada, Fresno State, SDSU, and Hawaii) merge to form a new BCS AQ conference.
- The remaining MWC schools, New Mexico State and Wyoming, migrate to the WAC.
- USF joins Conference USA
- The Sun Belt and MAC remain unchanged.
BCS AQ Conferences
| PAC 16 | BIG TEN | SEC | ACC | MOUNTAIN WEST |
| Arizona | BC | Alabama | Cincy | Air Force |
| ASU | Illinois | Arkansas | Clemson | Boise State |
| Cal | Indiana | Auburn | Duke | BYU |
| Colorado | Iowa | Baylor | FSU | CSU |
| Oklahoma | Michigan | Florida | Georgia Tech | Fresno State |
| Ok State | Michigan State | Georgia | Louisville | Hawaii |
| Oregon | Minnesota | Kentucky | Maryland | Iowa State |
| Oregon St. | Notre Dame | LSU | Miami | K State |
| Stanford | Nebraska | Miss State | NC State | Kansas |
| Texas | Northwestern | Mississippi | Syracuse | Missouri |
| Texas Tech | Ohio State | South Carolina | UConn | Nevada |
| UCLA | Penn State | Tennessee | UNC | SDSU |
| USC | Pitt | Texas AM | W Virginia | TCU |
| Utah | Purdue | Va Tech | Wake Forest | UNLV |
| Washington | Rutgers | Vanderbilt | ||
| WSU | Wisconsin | Virginia |
Non-AQ Conferences
| C-USA | MAC | SUN BELT | WAC | INDY |
| ECU | Akron | Ark State | Idaho | Army |
| Houston | Ball State | FAU | L Tech | Navy |
| Marshall | BGSU | FIU | New Mexico | |
| Memphis | Buffalo | MTSU | New Mex St. | |
| Rice | C Mich | North Texas | SJSU | |
| SMU | E Mich | S Alabama | Texas State | |
| So Miss | Kent State | Troy | UT-SA | |
| Tulane | Miami (OH) | UL Lafyette | Utah State | |
| Tulsa | NIU | UL Monroe | W Kentucky | |
| UAB | Ohio | Wyoming | ||
| UCF | Toledo | |||
| USF | W Mich | |||
| UTEP |
So thats one way things might shake out, but I'm no Nostradamus. I think the SEC/Pac-16 predictions are the strongest, and beyond that it starts to get hazy. Think I'm wrong somewhere? Think you've got a better idea who goes where? Will there only be four super conferences and four Big-12 schools will get left out? Will Notre Dame stick it out as an independent? Will Texas join BYU and ND on its own? Well if you feel like playing football God you can reserve a copy of NCAA Football 12 which recently announced its adding a feature that will allow you to reform conferences from anywhere from 4 to 16 members, change BCS Bowl AQ status and more. Of course you can also make some predictions in the comments section too.
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