Superconference shuffle - Setting the Stage

The summer of 2010 was an exciting one for fans of college football. We very nearly saw the complete collapse of one of the 6 BCS Auto-Qualifier conference and the creation of at least one 16 team super conference. For a good roundup of the moves and intrigue check out this wikipedia article. For now it looks like everything will settle in for 2012 as follows (although the WAC may still add a few members, likely 1-AA teams, and there are rumors the Big East would move up to 10 team inviting Villanova to move up to 1-A in football). Teams which changed conferences are in bold below.

BCS AQ Conferences

Pac 12	Big 12	Big Ten	SEC	ACC	Big East
Arizona	Baylor	Illinois	Alabama	BC	Cincinatti
ASU	Iowa State	Indiana	Arkansas	Clemson	Lousiville
Cal	K State	Iowa	Auburn	Duke	Pitt
Colorado	Kansas	Michigan	Florida	FSU	Rutgers
Oregon	Missourri	Michigan State	Georgia	Georgia Tech	Syracuse
Oregon State	OK State	Minnesotta	Kentucky	Maryland	TCU
Stanford	Oklahoma	Nebraska	LSU	Miami	Uconn
UCLA	Texas	Northwestern	Mississippi	NC State	USF
USC	Texas AM	Ohio State	Miss State	UNC	W Virginia
Utah	Texas Tech	Penn State	South Carolina	Virginia
Washington		Purdue	Tennessee	Virginia Tech
WSU		Wisconsin	Vanderbilt	Wake Forest

Non-AQ Conferences

MWC	WAC	C-USA	Sun Belt	MAC	Independent
Air Force	Idaho	ECU	Ark State	Akron	Army
Boise State	L Tech	Houston	FAU	Ball State	BYU
Colorado St.	New Mexico	Marshall	FIU	BGSU	Navy
Fresno State	San Jose State	Memphis	MTSU	Buffalo	Notre Dame
Hawaii	Texas State	Rice	North Texas	C Mich
Nevada	UT-San Antonio	SMU	S Alabama	E Mich
New Mex State	Utah State	So Miss	Troy	Kent State
SDSU		Tulane	UL Lafyette	Miami (OH)
UNLV		Tulsa	UL Monroe	NIU
Wyoming		UAB	W Kentucky	Ohio
		UCF		Toledo
		UTEP		W Mich

Ok, got all that? Good, but don't be too excited because it may not last long. A number of factors still exist that could cause conference re-alignment to come up again before we reach a good stable state. Three conferences in particular would seem to be on shaky ground.

First and most obvious is the WAC. After its attempt to poach teams from the Mountain West backfired, the WAC is looking more like the WEAK. Already they are bolstering their football ranks with a team who is just starting a football program (UT-San Antonio) and a 1-AA program (Texas State). It's likely any new teams that join would similarly be stepping up from the lower sub-division. To put it bluntly the WAC is a few more defections away from being a de-facto 1-AA conference. It's no secret that Louisiana Tech is interested in joining Conference USA and would probably jump given the chance. Meanwhile Utah State is a potential expansion target for the Mountain West. The WAC is struggling to keep its head above water, and this analysis by Zach Bloxham over at The Upset Blog highlights how low attendance is for those schools.

Second we have the Big East. Although a powerhouse in basketball (where its already a super conference with 17 members) its football slate is weak. Many feel its inclusion as a BCS AQ conference is unwarranted and a holdover from past football glory of departed members. They Big East reached out in desperation to TCU to bolster its ranks despite the Horned Frogs not being geographic fit. It wouldn't be the first time the Big East has had to deal with the consequences of conference re-allignment either. In the 2004-2005 cycle three of the strongest Big East teams left for the ACC and the Big East had to add in new teams then, teams which so far haven't lived up to the level set by departing members. During the past summer a number of teams were rumored as possible candidates for future expansion by the Big Ten (Rutgers, Pitt, Syracuse) and the ACC could come calling again if other conferences move up to 16.

Finally we come to the Big 12. This is a conference thats on shaky ground. A last minute deal struck that gives particular favor to the Texas Longhorns does nothing to solve the friction that cause schools like Colorado and Nebraska to seek greener pastures. Texas A&M was rumored to have interest in the SEC, a move that would allow it to differentiate itself from Texas and step out of the shadow of its bitter rival. With the money that the Pac-12 schools will be seeing from their recently re-negotiated media deal (divided equally among all members) you have to imagine a few of the schools that were approached to join the Pac-10 and form the Pac-16 have to be questioning their decision. It might not take much to crack the thin ties binding this conference together and the four northern schools, who were willing to concede money to other members for their remaining in the Big 12, who were likely to be left out of any major expansion scenarios might not be so lucky next time around.

So there we have it, an unstable equilibrium ready to crack and cause a cascade that will reshape major college football like never before. Next time we'll take a look at a few ways such changes would likely shake out.